England’s Azteca test: why Merson sees Mexico as a 50-50 tie

Paul Merson views England’s last-16 meeting with Mexico as a genuine 50-50 contest. His concern is not simply Mexico’s quality, but the combination of the Azteca, the crowd and the high-altitude conditions in Mexico City.

England reached this stage by coming from behind to beat DR Congo 2-1, with Harry Kane again central to the result. Merson praised Kane’s form and argued that the England captain belongs in the wider Ballon d’Or debate if his scoring run continues deep into the tournament.

The venue is the major storyline. The source notes Mexico’s strong competitive record at the Azteca, including no World Cup defeats there, and says England are arriving only two days before the match. Merson’s view is that this leaves little time to adapt to conditions reported at roughly 7,000 to 7,200 feet above sea level.

There is also a tactical question for Thomas Tuchel, particularly at right-back. Merson discussed Djed Spence, Declan Rice and other midfield reshuffles as possible answers, but the broader issue is whether England can control the rhythm of the match rather than allow an end-to-end contest that favours the hosts.